[Mich-chat] FW: Winter Finch Forecast 2009-2010

Tue Sep 22 10:04:14 EDT 2009

As always, an intersting annual report from the Ontario Field
Ornithologists....  Kip Miller

From: Jean Iron <jeaniron at sympatico.ca>
To: ontbirds at hwcn.org
Sent: Saturday, September 19, 2009 9:24:00 PM
Subject: [Ontbirds] Winter Finch Forecast 2009-2010

WINTER FINCH FORECAST 2009-2010
General Forecast: The theme this winter is there will be no major finch
irruptions outside their normal ranges. Finch numbers will be low and thinly
distributed or absent in southern and northeastern Ontario and Quebec, where
seed crops are poor. Higher numbers of finches should be attracted to much
better cone crops in northwestern Ontario and west into northern
Saskatchewan, the Maritime Provinces and Newfoundland, and northern New
England States.

Key Finch Trees: The key tree species in Ontario's boreal forest triggering
finch movements and distribution are white and black spruces, white birch,
and mountain-ashes. South of the boreal forest in the mixed
coniferous/deciduous forest region, white pine and hemlock are additional
key finch trees. Other trees play a lesser role in finch movements, but
often buffer main seed sources. These include tamarack, balsam fir, red
pine, white cedar, alders, and yellow birch.

Tree Seed Crops: Spruce cone crops are poor in central Ontario such as
Algonquin Park and in northeastern Ontario and Quebec. However, spruce crops
are good to excellent in the boreal forest north of Lake Superior and west
into Saskatchewan. Spruce cone abundance is lower in Alberta and eastern
Rocky Mountains, Yukon and Alaska, but is excellent in some high spruce
zones of central British Columbia. East of Quebec, spruce crops are good to
excellent in much of Eastern Canada including the island of Newfoundland.
Heavy spruce crops are also reported in the northern New England States. The
white pine cone crop is poor in central Ontario such as Algonquin Park and
fair to good elsewhere in the province, but spotty. White pine crops are
heavy in New Hampshire. The hemlock crop is almost zero in the province. The
white birch crop is poor in central and northeastern Ontario and Quebec, but
improves westward in Ontario, becoming very good in Saskatchewan. Birch
seed supplies are lower in Alberta and Alaska. The mountain-ash (rowan
berry) crop is excellent across most of the boreal forest in Canada,
including the island of Newfoundland where it is called dogberry.

INDIVIDUAL FINCH FORECASTS
Individual finch forecasts below apply mainly to Ontario, but neighboring
provinces and states may find the forecast applies to them. An irruptive
raptor and three irruptive passerines are also discussed.

Pine Grosbeak: Expect very little or no southward movement into southern
Ontario because mountain-ash berry crops are excellent in most of the boreal
forest. A few should get south to Algonquin Park as in most winters.

Purple Finch: Most Purple Finches should migrate south out of the province
this fall because many seed crops are poor in the north. This finch has
declined significantly in recent decades.

Red Crossbill: This crossbill comprises at least 10 "call types" in North
America. Each type has its cone preferences related to bill size and shape.
The types are exceedingly difficult to identify in the field. Types 2 and 3
and probably 4 occur regularly in Ontario. Most Red Crossbills prefer pines,
but the smallest-billed Hemlock Type 3 (= subspecies sitkensis of AOU
Check-list 1957) prefers the small soft cones of hemlock and white spruce
when bumper in Ontario. However, it should be absent from traditional areas
such as Algonquin Park where hemlock and white spruce occur together because
these crops are poor there. White pine Type 2 is the most frequently
encountered Red Crossbill in the province. Since white pine crops are low in
most of the province, it should be rare to absent this winter. Other Red
Crossbill types are possible in the province.

White-winged Crossbill: This crossbill has no subspecies or types in North
America. In Ontario, it prefers the small soft cones of white, black and red
spruces and hemlock. Many White-winged Crossbills left the province this
past summer after last winter's irruption. Some went into northern Ontario
attracted to the good spruce cone crops and were singing and presumably
nested. These birds may remain in the north this winter and could breed
again in mid winter if seed supplies last. White-winged Crossbills will be
rare or absent this winter in traditional areas such as Algonquin Park
because spruce and hemlock cone crops are low. White-winged Crossbills
should appear this winter in Newfoundland and the Maritime Provinces and the
northern New England States, where spruce cone crops are good to heavy.

Common and Hoary Redpolls: Redpolls are a birch seed specialist in winter.
Since the birch crop is poor in northeastern Ontario and Quebec, a few
Common Redpolls should move south into southern Ontario and farther east and
south. However, most redpolls may be drawn to good birch crops in
northwestern Ontario and westward in the boreal forest into Saskatchewan.

Pine Siskin: Siskins are a conifer seed specialist when they winter in
northern Ontario. Hemlock seed is another favorite in central Ontario. Most
siskins departed the province early this past summer and appear to have gone
mainly to western Canada. Banding recoveries show that siskins wander both
ways between eastern and western North America. Siskins are currently very
scarce in the Northeast. If siskins find good conifer crops in the
Northwest, such as the interior of British Columbia, they will stay to
winter and breed. It is uncertain whether many will return east this fall to
winter in northwestern Ontario, the Maritime Provinces and northern New
England States, where cone crops are good to excellent.

Evening Grosbeak: Breeding populations are much lower now than 35 years ago
due mainly to a decrease of large outbreaks of spruce budworm beginning in
the 1980s. A very few grosbeaks may move south from northeastern Ontario and
Quebec where coniferous and deciduous seed supplies are generally poor. If
any come, there are large crops of Manitoba maple seeds and plenty of
sunflower seeds at feeders waiting for them.

FOUR MORE IRRUPTIVE SPECIES
Northern Goshawk: A good flight is very possible this fall or next. Goshawks
in the boreal forest in winter prey on hares, grouse and red squirrels.
Snowshoe Hares have been abundant in parts of northern Ontario the past few
years and they should crash soon. Also, Ruffed Grouse likely had a poor
breeding season due to a cool, wet spring and summer, which lowered chick
survival.

Blue Jay: The flight began in the second week of September. This year's
flight is much larger than in 2008 along the north shorelines of Lakes
Ontario and Erie because most acorn, beechnut and hazelnut crops were poor
this summer in Ontario with some local exceptions. Many fewer jays will
winter in Ontario because most could not find enough food to store.

Red-breasted Nuthatch: Movements of this nuthatch in Ontario are linked to
cone crop abundance, particularly white spruce, white pine and balsam fir
when bumper. There has not been a noticeable southward movement along Lakes
Ontario and Erie, indicating this is not an irruption year for it and
associated winter finches such as White-winged Crossbills and Pine Siskins.
However, Red-breasted Nuthatches will be scarce this winter in central
Ontario such as Algonquin Park and in northeastern Ontario and Quebec
because cone crops there are generally poor in these areas. Many nuthatches
likely dispersed to better cone crops north and west of Lake Superior and
east to the Maritime Provinces.

Bohemian Waxwing: Like the Pine Grosbeak, this waxwing is a mountain-ash
berry specialist in winter. Mountain-ash crops are high around Lake Superior
and in many areas of northern Ontario. Crops are also good in Quebec,
Newfoundland and northern New England States so this nomad may show up in
these areas this winter. Its breeding and winter ranges in eastern North
America have expanded in recent times. Range maps in field guides show
Bohemians breeding east to James Bay, but recently they have been found in
summer scattered across northern Quebec and Labrador. Historically they were
very rare in winter on the island of Newfoundland, but are now abundant
there some winters. Their winter range movements have also expanded to other
eastern areas because of planted European mountain-ashes and ornamental
crabapples.

WHERE TO SEE FINCHES: A winter trip to Algonquin Park is always a birding
adventure. The park is a three hour drive north of Toronto. Finch numbers
will be low in Algonquin this winter, but the feeders at the Visitor Centre
should attract a few Evening Grosbeaks, Pine Grosbeaks and redpolls. Gray
Jays frequent the suet feeder and sometimes a Pine Marten or Fisher feeds on
the suet. An observation deck overlooks a spectacular boreal wetland and
black spruce/tamarack forest. Eastern Canadian Wolves (Canis lycaon), which
until recently was a subspecies of the Gray Wolf, are seen occasionally from
the observation deck feeding on road-killed Moose put out by park staff. The
Visitor Centre and restaurant at km 43 are open on weekends in winter.
Arrangements can be made to view feeders on weekdays. For information, call
the Visitor Centre at 613-637-2828. The Spruce Bog Trail at km 42.5 near the
Visitor Centre and the gated area north on the Opeongo Road are  the best
spots for finches, Gray Jay, Boreal Chickadee, Spruce Grouse and
Black-backed Woodpecker.

FINCHES AND TREES: A good knowledge of trees is essential to understanding
winter finch habitats, food preferences and distributions. By coincidence,
the finch forecast comes out the same week as the new "The Sibley Guide to
Trees". In a recent interview with Birder's World, David Sibley said "I
wanted it to be a tree guide for birdwatchers".

Previous finch forecasts archived at OFO website.
http://www.ofo.ca/reportsandarticles/pastwinterfinches.php
Previous finch forecasts archived at Larry Neily's website.
http://ca.geocities.com/larry.neily@rogers.com/pittaway-old.htm

ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS: I thank staff of the Ontario Ministry of Natural Resources
from across the province designated by an asterisk* and many others whose
reports allow me to make annual forecasts: Ken Abraham* (Hudson Bay
Lowlands), Dennis Barry (Durham Region), Eleanor Beagan (Prince Edward
Island), Syd Cannings (Yukon), Ken Corston* (Moosonee), Pascal Cote
(Tadoussac, Quebec), Shirley Davidson (Minden/Dorset), Bruce Di Labio
(Ottawa), Carrolle Eady (Dryden), Cameron Eckert (Yukon), Nick Escott
(Thunder Bay), Brian Fox* (Timmins), Marcel Gahbauer (Alberta), Stacy Gan*
(James Bay),  David Govatski  (New Hampshire), Skye Haas (Michigan), Charity
Hendry* (Ontario Tree Seed Plant), Leo Heyens* (Kenora), Tyler Hoar, George
Holborn* (Thunder Bay), David Hussell*, Peter Hynard (Haliburton and Maine),
Jean Iron (Northeastern Ontario/James Bay), Bruce Mactavish (Newfoundland),
Erwin Meissner (Massey), Brian Naylor* (North Bay), Stephen O'Donnell (Parry
Sound  District), Mark O'Donoghue (Yukon), Fred Pinto* (North Bay), Rick
Salmon* (Lake Nipigon), Harvey and Brenda Schmidt (Creighton, Saskatchewan),
Chris Sharp (Trent University), Don Sutherland* (Northern Ontario), Eve
Ticknor (Ottawa), Ron Tozer (Algonquin Park), Declan Troy (Alaska), Mike
Turner* (Minden), Mike Walsh* (Muskoka), John Woodcock (Thunder Cape Bird
Observatory), Matt Young has been very helpful with seed crop information
from New York State, and Kirk Zufelt (Sault Ste Marie ON). Jean Iron
provided many helpful suggestions and proofed the forecast.

Ron Pittaway
Ontario Field Ornithologists
Minden ON
19 September 2009

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